We have finally made it to the biggest game of the year. The best of the best face-off on national television to achieve the Lombardi trophy. The estimated cost for Super Bowl ads will be over $600 Million with 30 seconds costing $7 Million. Viewership is projected to be over 100 Million viewers. The most important statistic is that around 67.8 Million Americans will place a bet on the game, estimated to be around $23.1 billion. Will the sportsbooks win or will the gamblers win? We know the books always win, but some people will make the right picks. I aimed to look through some potential player props, lines, and book specials to see what could have the best chance. To be clear, I am not a professional and my advice should be looked at as a guide, not the 100% truth. Gamble well and win them all.
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Straight Bets:
Christian McCaffery (Over 89.5 Rushing Yards) - Best odds Fanduel or Bet 365: (-110)
` It is hard to ever bet against McCaffery, especially in a playoff game. He has hit this line in 8 of his last 10 games. If you want to be safer you can switch the line to 70+ or 80+. The Chiefs do have a strong defense, but with CMC’s use, it will be strong.
Isiah Pacheco (Over 67.5 Rushing Yards) - Best odds Bet 365: (-110)
Pacheco has hit this line in 6 of his last 8 games. He has hit this in 4 of his last 4. Now the 49ers have a great defense ranking around the 8th spot, but the playoffs are different. They have averaged 386 yards between their playoff games, which is a lot higher than their regular season yards (304 per game). Pacheco has achieved this against 3 teams who all place in the top 10 of ranked defenses. Pacheco will be used greatly.Â
Travis Kelce (Over 70.5 Receiving Yards) - Best odds ESPN Bet (-115)
We all know that Travis Kelce is a different player when it comes to the playoffs. In the previous three playoff games, he has been over 70 yards every game. With San Fransisco’s top-ranked defense Mahomes will have to look to his top guy!Â
Quick bets (for parlay use): (odds based on Fanduel)
Patrick Mahomes Over 250 Passing Yards (-154)Â
Rashee Rice Over 50 Rec. Yards (-275)
Brock Purdy Over 225 Passing Yards (-210)
Deebo Samuel Over 40 Receiving Yards (-275)
Brock Purdy Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-120)
Parlays (Odds subject to change):
Parlay #1 on Bet MGM: Current Odds = (+310). I will put each leg below.
Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD
Brock Purdy Over 199.5 Passing yards
Brock Purdy 1 Passing TD
Patrick Mahomes 1 Passing TD
George Kittle Over 29.5 Rec. Yards
Christian McCaffrey Over 19.5 Rec. Yards
Isiah Pacheco Over 54.5 Rushing Yards
The goal for this parlay is to hit player props that happen more frequently. Hit below their current line in hopes they can hit the low end. It is partially complex because it has many legs, but it should have a good chance.
Parlay #2 on Fanduel: Current Odds (+546)
Travis Kelce Any Time TD
Brock Purdy Over 175+ Passing Yards
Patrick Mahomes Over 200+ Passing Yards
Rashee Rice Over 40+ Receiving Yards
Brandon Aiyuk Over 40+ Receiving Yards
Travis Kelce Over 50+ Receiving Yards
Deebo Samuel Over 40+ Receiving Yards
My reasoning is similar to the other parlay. We look at some of the core players and put together lower-player props. If you want to play it safer you can take Kelce down to 40+ and Deebo or Aiyuk down.Â
Parlay #3 on Fanatics: Current Odds (+1050)
Brock Purdy Over 2 Passing Touchdowns
Brock Purdy Over 200 Yards
Kansas City Chiefs 1st half-money line
San Fransisco 49ers full game money line
This one does not have a ton of logic, but we know the Chiefs can come out strong. So they will take a lead Brock Purdy will lead a second-half comeback getting over 200 yards and 2 touchdowns. If this hits the Chiefs 1st half then I think it has a good chance of succeeding.Â
Platform bets:
This section is for different bets that can be found on various betting platforms. I am unable to gamble on odds such as Gatorade color, National Anthem time, and coin toss, but there are other fun bets out there.
DraftKings:
Jersey Number of 1st Touchdown Scorer: (Over 22.5)
My Choice: Over 22.5 (-115)
As stated, these are different but fun. Let’s think about this through each of the core players. Christian McCaffery, Travis Kelce, and George Kittle are three core players above 22.5 for their jersey number. To me, it is hard to root against CMC and Kelce in the big game. The under does include Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Isiah Pacheo. These are solid picks, but as a core, I think the over has to be hit.Â
Quarter Bingo (+3000)
Q1 - Christian McCaffery 25+ Rushing Yards
Q2 - Isiah Pacheco Rushing TD
Q3 - Patrick Mahomes Pass TD
Q4 - Any Sack
Is this one a little far-fetched, OF COURSE, but is it fun? Absolutely! Is any of this out of the ordinary, no. All of these legs are completely possible. It just depends on what will happen within the quarter that is needed. This one is a longer shot but with $10 winning $300 it could be fun.Â
ESPN BET
Travis Kelce to record over 69.5 Receiving yards & a touchdown (Current odds: +220)
Are you riding with Kelce and the Swifties? If so this could be a good one for you. I bet other platforms have similar bets, but this is where I found it first put together. I already talked about why I like Kelce above 70 receiving yards so adding a touchdown would be even better.Â
Fanduel
Each team to score 1+ TD & 1+ FG in each half (Current odds: +2600)
One of my favorite bets that has never won, but has been close. This one gets my heart going because when one part hits, you look for the next. Hopefully, this can be a big one for the day.
Overall, there are many good plays, but these are some core ones I have seen. Let's win them all tonight.